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Saturday, March 15th, 2014
leader of the pack

14 0315 brics

In late November 2001, Goldman Sachs came up with the term BRICs to signify the markets that they thought would be the drivers over the next few years.  They are, of course, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Their total returns are shown above since the anointing.  The leader of the pack was Russia, with the biggest upside out of the gate, the biggest downdraft in 2008, and the overall best return coming into this year.

India has now taken over first place, with Russia falling fast, Brazil less than half as good, and China (lauded China) far behind.  The U.S. is shown for comparison purposes.

The chart below looks a little closer, beginning at the time of the 2007 top in the U.S. market.  It has the lead on that shorter time frame, with India very close behind.  Then Brazil, Russia, and (last again) China.

(There is a question on my investment challenge dealing with the performance of the BRICs in 2013.  This posting ought to give you a leg up on other contestants.)

Now we have the specter of Vlad the Terrible remaking the Soviet Union.  This wasn’t supposed to happen in a world of global markets, where the ties that bind in an economic sense are supposed to be stronger than the geopolitical ones.

Let’s see where the leader of the pack takes us this time.  (Charts:  Bloomberg terminal.)

14 0315 brics ~ shorter